Молодіusersincreasinglyopentosmartvehicleoptions
Howshouldwerefertocarconnectivity? Atfirst,itwasknownasandquot;telematicsandquot;,aweirdnomenclaturecreatedbytheITindustrythroughthecombinationoftelecommunicationsplusinformatics.Itembracedcommunicationbetweendriversandthecallcentersoftheoriginalequipmentmanufacturers(orthirdparties)toobtainservicesorassistance,suchasreal-timetrafficinformation,roadsiderescue,andcardiagnostics. Головне, carownersneededtopayannualfeesof500yuan($77) to1, 200yuanforsuchservices.
Earlythisdecade, andquot; connectedcarsandquot; becamethetermofchoice, asitreferredtonotonlythefunctionsoftelematics, butalsoV2V (транспортного засобу автомобіля) orV2X (транспортний засіб інфраструктури) функцій, aimedatabetterdrivingsafetyandbettertrafficflows.
Butindustrypeoplequicklydecidedthisnamewasnotsexyenough, sotheystartedusingthephraseandquot; smartcarsandquot;. Thisreferstonotonlyconnectedcars, butalsoautonomousdriving, andincludesnew енергія-транспортного засобу, especiallyall electricvehicle, технологія.
Thelong-termvisionforsmartcarsis100percentautonomousdriving, togetherwithIntelligentTransportSystems, whichcanreleasepeoplefromtheburdenofdrivingandreducetrafficaccidents.
Therewillbefewercrashesandcollisions, sinceallvehicleswillbecontrolledbyamega-matrixsystem, nothandledbyhumanbeings.
Ifthiscanberealizedin20to30yearsaspredicted, theautoindustrywillbeturnedupsidedown.
Sincetherewillbenodrivers, therisksofanaccidentwillbesignificantlyreduced, andallthefeaturesusedtoattractcustomerstoday, suchasdrivability, обробки, andsafetyfeatureswillnolongerbesellingpoints.
Нажиттєво важливимі #39; brainand #39;
Andifsafetyfeaturesarenolongeranimportantfeature, therewillbenoneedtostamporlaserweldsuperstrongcarbodiesortopassstringentcollisiontests.
Thusthesafetytechnologybarrierswillbeloweredforcarmanufacturers.Themostimportantpartofthecarwillbetheandquot;brainandquot;,andtheembeddedTelematicsControlUnit,theandquot;brainandquot;,tofacilitateaccesstotheinternet.
GiantITcompaniessuchasGoogleorApplearebetterpositionedinthiskindoftechnologicalcompetition,sincetheyhaveexperienceofcomputerhardwareandsoftwareintegration,andofdevelopingalgorithms,whichareallvitalforautonomousdriving.
Traditionalcarcompaniesmayfindthemselveslosingtheircompetitiveedgequicklyovertime.
Tomakethingsworse, carsharinghasbecomeverypopularamongtheyoungergeneration.
Itcanbeexpectedthatforyoungpeopleinbigcities, punctualandsafetransportationfrompoint-Atopoint-Bbyanautonomouscarwhenevertheysendarequestwillbecomethenormandowningacarwillbecomelessimportant.
Thislong-termfutureisterrifyingforthetraditionalautoindustry, becausethatwillmeantheworldwillneedfewernewcarseachyear. Industryestimatessuggestthatinthenottoodistantfuture, globalnewvehiclessaleswilldeclineby30to50percentfromtodayand #39; s80millionunits.
ThatwillbeaccompaniedbynewcompetitorsintheformoftheIT/internetgiants, whichwillbeabletoleveragetheiradvantagesinwhatwillbethenewsellingpoints. Fortraditionalautocompanies, andquot; tobeornottobeandquot; isanexistentialquestionthatisbecomingevermorepertinent.
Однак, fromtodayand #39; srealityoftraditionaltelematicsservicestothefuturein30years, thereisstillalongwaytogo. Mostglobalautocompanieshavestrategicplansorroadmapstotransitionintotechnologycompanies.
Duringthistransitionera, thekeywillbetograbthebigdataofthecarsanddriversfirst, andthentodevelopdifferentlevelsofautonomousdrivingtechnologies.
ThepreconditionforhavingaccesstobigdataistohaveanembeddedtelematicsTCUsysteminthecarfirst.
Todayand#39;sembeddedtelematicsserviceshavebeendevelopingformorethan10yearsinChinabutstill,theserviceslookmoreliketheicingonthecake,andcarownersdonotagreetheseandquot;servicesandquot;arenecessitiesfordriving. Sowhiletheywelcomethesenewfunctions, theyfirmlyrefusetopayextraforthem. Thustheinstallationratioofembeddedtelematicsinnewcarswaslessthan10percentbytheendof2015.
Новіпідключення доконтури
Sinceconsumersrelyonandtrustthemapsontheirsmartphonesmorethanthemapsystem,recentlysmartphoneconnectivitysystemsthatuseacarand#39;sbuilt-indisplaysuchasAppleand#39;sCarPlayandBaiduand#39;sCarLifehavebecomepopularwithconsumersastheyallowthemapsonsmartphonestobeusedwithoutanyextraannualfees.Suchsystemsareexpectedbepartofmorethan80percentofnewcarsalesinfiveyears.
Однак, aphoneconnectionsolutioncannotkeepthecaronlineallthetime, andsincetheyarethirdpartydevicestheycannotintegratewithavehicleand #39; сканування BUSdeeplyenoughforautonomousdriving.
Therefore,fromanindustrypointofview,onlyanembeddedTCUsystemcandothejob.Atthesametime,automakersareplanningtoreducetheservicesprovidedbycallcentersandshiftinsteadtocloudsystemsformoreself-serviceexperiences,sothattheannualfeescanbereducedoreliminated.
ItisestimatedthatembeddedTCUsystemswillbeavailableinthecomingtwotothreeyearsfromallthetraditionalautomakers.
Цікаво, inthisregard, itisindustryneedsinsteadofconsumerdemanddrivingconnectedcarsandsmartcarsforward. AndpolicydoesnotplayamajorroleheresincetherearenoregulationsabouttelematicsincarsinChina(althoughtherearesomeinthecommercialvehiclesector).
Autonomousdrivingremainsattheexperimentalstageduetothetechnologycurrentlyavailableandthelegalrisksshouldtherebeanaccident,butmanystartupentrepreneursbackedbyventurecapitalhaveannouncedambitiousplanstoandquot;buildandquot;smartcars:electricvehicleswithadvanceddriverassistancesystemsandcarconnectionfeatures.
VCdarlings
Whiletheydonothaveexperienceofdevelopingormanufacturingcars, theydohaveagoodunderstandingofhowtotellstoriestoventurecapitalists. Пов'язано, автономне, electriccarsaredefinitelyafavoriteforventurecapital.
Notlongago, onesmartcarcompanyand #39; sexecutiveinchargeofmanufacturingcomplainedinternally: andquot; Ihaveonlytwoquestions:first, whydoesthiscompanywanttomanufactureacarinthefirstplace? Другий, howwillitsellthiscartothemarket? Tilltoday, Idonand #39; tseeanyseriousdiscussionaboutthesetwoquestions! andquot;
Очевидно, thisexecutiveisatraditionalcarguy; hedoesnotunderstandcapitalmarketrulesortrends.
Однак, itand #39; s2016, not2046. WearenotintheidealdrivingenvironmentofIntelligentTransportSystemsyet,thereforemanufacturingsmartcarsstillhasthehighbarriersassociatedwithmanufacturingatraditionalcarasthegeneralassemblyprocesses,suchasstamping,weldingandcoating,cannotyetbebypassed. Agoodunderstandingofcapitalmarketsisfarfromenough.
Whetherbyatraditionalcarcompany, oranewstartuporanITcompany, thehopeistherewillbemoreandquot; quietandquot; smartcartechnologydevelopmentinChina; moredoingandlesstalk
